GrainCorp Receives 1.3 Million Tonnes in a Week as Harvest Accelerates

GrainCorp has received 1.3 million tonnes of grain in the past week alone, with the company's outgoing head Robert Spurway telling its annual general meeting that the network took close to 200,000 tonnes in a single day.

"Just yesterday we received close to 200,000t into the network, so you can see how busy and how quickly things improve at this time of the year," Mr Spurway told the forum. The figure marks GrainCorp's first harvest update of the season, released today.

Harvest is now in full swing across the plains and outer slopes of New South Wales and in southern Queensland, after rain delays and ahead of more forecast falls. Quality of wheat and barley varies enormously, and growers are delivering little into the cash market while they weigh drying and blending options. Consumers remain largely comfortable on the back of old-crop loads and new-crop deliveries received before the rain.

How far advanced is the northern harvest?

At Narrabri, AgVantage Commodities broker principal Steve Dalton said harvest north and west of town was "fairly advanced", around three-quarters done for many growers despite rain of varying amounts that began in the second half of October. The barley harvest is largely finished, wheat is close behind, and chickpeas are next in line.

"With barley…we're seeing everything from BAR3 to BAR1, and with wheat, it's everything from APH1 to FED1 and SFW," Mr Dalton said. "Testweight and falling numbers are the main problem."

Some harvested wheat carries protein of 13-16 percent with screenings at 12-20 percent, and trade sources indicate growers will look at grading or blending to maximise the value of protein wheat. Mr Dalton said the variable quality was "creating some challenges" for bulk handlers.

"Larger sites seem to be able to manage better, and some sites say: 'You deliver and we'll take it'."

Wind and maximum temperatures around 35 degrees Celsius on the north-west plains yesterday gave growers ideal conditions for drying damp grain before harvest. Northern NSW has a smaller-than-average winter crop because of reduced planted area, and growers appear to be handling high-moisture grain in their own aerated silos. In southern Queensland, many growers own sorghum driers and are running wheat and barley through them.

"Generally speaking, we haven't had any phone calls or conversations re high moisture," Mr Dalton said.

Consumers, he added, seem "pretty well covered", which is just as well given growers are not looking to out-turn much grain until harvest is over. "Guys are using their storage and are focused just on harvest."

Bureau of Meteorology forecasts point to 25-50mm of rain over the weekend for districts still harvesting. Without that rain, most growers in north-west NSW, apart from the Liverpool Plains where harvest is only just starting, would have finished.

What should growers do with downgraded grain?

This harvest looks likely to produce little top-grade durum. "I'm not speaking to growers north and west of Narrabri that have had DR1; there's black tip, staining, and falling numbers," Mr Dalton said.

Chickpeas are shaping as the cash sell, with Narrabri packers paying around $930/t. That beats the $990-$1000/t offered delivered Brisbane port, because growers and carriers are loath to book long runs mid-way through a rain-interrupted harvest.

The barley grade spread runs at roughly $20/t per hop between BAR1 at minimum testweight 62.5kg per hectolitre, BAR2 at minimum 60kg, and BAR3 with no minimum.

A Tamworth-based nutritionist with Integrated Animal Production said feedlots that have harvested downgraded barley, or farmers running cattle, should feed it in the on-farm ration provided mould poses no health risk. Larger feedlots will not want to buy bulk downgraded grain, so clearing it in-house, possibly accepting a 15 percent decrease in the ration's conversion rate, looks the best option.

"If it's not good barley now, it'll never be good barley…so you may as well get rid of it," the nutritionist said.

Why are southern barley prices firming?

Quality is equally mixed in southern and central NSW, where high screenings and low testweights characterise plains crops that missed grain-filling spring rain.

"Quality is all over the shop; there's no doubt about it," Peters Commodities trader Peter Gerhardy said.

Some wheat is testing at up to 70 percent screenings, yet carrying protein as high as 14-15 percent. Mr Gerhardy said growers with such samples are likely to store them until harvest finishes, then hope grading can place the grain into H1 or H2 once the headers leave the paddock.

Canola remains the southern cash sell, and oil content of 44-46 percent in places is offsetting disappointing yields of 2t/ha in some GM crops.

Southern barley prices have firmed $5-$7/t at depot level in the past week. "Depot prices on barley are firming all the time; it tells me the growers aren't selling," Mr Gerhardy said.

ASW wheat delivered into Hanwood in the Riverina is trading at around $340/t, enough to keep grain up-country and satisfy feedmill demand.

West of the inner slopes in southern NSW, harvest has started to move at pace. "The canola harvest is winding up in a lot of areas, barley is winding up, and the grower is getting on to wheat," Mr Gerhardy said.

Feedlot demand centred in southern Queensland has dropped its call for southern barley, choosing locally sourced grain until road transport becomes available ex Victoria and southern NSW once the harvest peak passes.

Growers in the still-harvesting districts should watch the weekend forecast closely: 25-50mm of rain will decide whether the remaining wheat crop comes off clean or joins the downgrading queue.