Haryana recorded roughly 600 farm fires last year, and its red-zone villages — those with the highest fire counts — have fallen from 14 in 2024 to just three in 2025. Yellow-zone villages dropped from 273 to 145. But the state's push to eliminate stubble burning will hinge less on headline numbers than on whether the smallest farmers can get machines and buyers during the narrow harvest window.

This year Haryana has around 16 lakh hectares under paddy, generating an estimated 80 million tonnes of crop residue. Moving even a fraction of that material demands collection systems that reach fields fast, because harvesting is staggered and the gap before the next crop is short.

A market for that residue is taking shape in villages once synonymous with burning. In Bhuthan Kalan, balers have reached some small farmers and straw collection businesses are emerging. At nearby Mohammadpur Rohi, entrepreneur Mahinder Singh runs 13 tractors and covers around 30 acres a day, hauling straw to bottling, cardboard and dyeing units that use it as biomass fuel.

Singh said more than 30 factories in the area are buying straw bales, and he charges Rs 200 per quintal for paddy straw. In Suniyana, farmers Gureninder and Bajinder Singh, who together farm 90 acres, have harvested their first paddy crop with combine harvesters and use balers to gather the residue. Singh does not charge farmers for removal because he earns from selling bales to companies.

The buyer list is widening. Paddy straw now feeds 2G ethanol plants, biogas units, and pellet and briquette production for industrial and power-plant fuel. Paper and cardboard manufacturers are also in the market. That structure means farmers need not pay for residue removal, while aggregators profit from collecting, processing and transporting it.

The system, however, remains informal. Agriculture official Girish Nagpal described it as an emerging arrangement: companies place orders for specified quantities, aggregators collect from farmers, and the residue moves to industrial users. No standardised statewide procurement or pricing system exists.

That informality hits smallholdings hardest. Amarjeet Singh, who farms 10 acres, said access to a baler depends on having the right connections. Machine rentals currently run around Rs 700 per acre, but he expects costs to climb to about Rs 2,400 an acre at peak demand — a gap that bites for farmers already facing crop losses, higher fertiliser costs and an indifferent monsoon.

Karamveer, who farms four acres in Jind, said he cannot afford machine rentals after heavy crop spending. Balbir Singh of Narwana said private operators often prefer larger farms because travelling to one- or two-acre plots makes fuel costs uneconomic. The central infrastructure problem is clear: a baler may exist in the district, but that does not mean it reaches every field.

Government data shows around 9,000 additional machines are ready for deployment this season — happy seeders, balers, hay rakes, crop reapers and rotary slashers. Yet machine counts alone cannot guarantee equipment arrives in the right village on the right day at a price small farmers can pay.

Haryana's agriculture department says it is tackling that coordination gap by identifying vulnerable farmers and matching machinery availability with harvesting schedules. Field staff are locating small and marginal farmers to determine when they need machines, and the department is tracking staggered harvesting district by district, maintaining a calendar of which blocks harvest first.

That administrative function may prove as important as the equipment itself. When harvesting peaks, baler demand surges, raising the risk of queues, higher rentals and selective service. A network that works early in the season can still fail when every field needs service at once.

Additional chief secretary for agriculture Vijayender Kumar said it is too early to predict a fire-free season, noting Haryana has many farmers and several issues are involved. His caution captures the difference between reducing incidents and eliminating them: falling totals can coexist with persistent failures in particular villages, farm sizes or harvest periods.

The straw market now spans two policy systems. The state's machinery and extension network determines whether residue gets collected in time; the industrial market for biomass, pellets, briquettes, ethanol feedstock and paper determines whether collection pays. Neither is complete.

The next test arrives in mid-October, when farmers expect harvesting to peak. That period will show whether the deployment calendar matches demand, whether private operators serve smaller plots, and whether factories and aggregators can absorb the available straw.