US tractor sales fall 16.4% in September as combine demand slides

US farm tractor sales fell 16.4% in September 2026 against September 2025, with self-propelled combines down 10.9%, according to figures released Oct. 12 by the Milwaukee-based Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).

The numbers get worse north of the border. Canadian tractor sales declined 15.1% year on year, while Canadian combine sales collapsed 37.6% — a drop steep enough to suggest Canadian growers are delaying header replacements at scale, not just trimming margins.

"September's sales underscore the difficulty in the agriculture market today," said Curt Blades, AEM senior vice president. "We approach this harvest season with optimism for increased certainty and recovery of the farm economy."

Where the US declines hit hardest

Every horsepower class lost ground in September. That breadth matters: when compact tractors and 200-plus-horsepower row-crop machines fall together, the pullback spans hobby farms and large grain operations alike.

• Under 40 hp: 8,952 units sold, versus 10,578 in September 2025
• 40 to 100 hp: 4,443 units, down from 5,466
• Above 100 hp: 1,396 units, down from 1,643
• Self-propelled combines: 369 units, versus 413 a year earlier

To put one of those in perspective: farmers bought roughly 1,600 fewer sub-40-hp tractors in a single month than they did the year before. That's an entire month of above-100-hp sales, wiped out of the compact segment alone.

What the year-to-date numbers show

The monthly figures aren't a one-off blip on an otherwise stable year. Year-to-date sales of two-wheel-drive farm tractors through September totaled 133,877 units, down 12.5% from 152,976 units at the same point in 2025.

The big-iron categories are falling faster. September sales of four-wheel-drive tractors — the 400-plus-horsepower articulated machines that anchor large tillage and grain-cart work — totaled 233 units, compared with 292 in September 2025. Year-to-date, 4WD tractor sales sit at 1,448 units, a 23.4% decline from 1,891 units a year ago.

Year-to-date self-propelled combine sales through September totaled 2,432 units, down 9.4% from 2,683 units.

Inventory sits heavy as demand falls

AEM also tracks beginning inventories, and the September numbers signal continued price pressure for dealers. Beginning inventory across all classes of two- and four-wheel-drive tractors totaled 95,533 units. Combine beginning inventory stood at 911 units.

Roughly 95,500 tractors sitting in dealer stock against a market buying about 14,800 units a month means more than six months of supply at current run rates. Dealers carrying that much iron typically get aggressive on financing terms and year-end discounts — which is the practical takeaway for any grower who has been deferring a tractor or combine purchase.

Why it matters for farm decisions

For machinery buyers, the data cuts two ways. Weak sales and heavy inventories historically translate into leverage at the dealership table during the fourth quarter, when dealers race to clear lots before year-end. A 23.4% year-to-date drop in 4WD tractor sales, the steepest decline in the dataset, points to particular softness in the high-horsepower segment where sticker prices are highest and negotiation room runs deepest.

For the wider farm economy, the declines track with what growers already know: compressed margins have made capital replacement the first budget line to cut. Blades' reference to "increased certainty" signals AEM expects policy or commodity-price relief to loosen pent-up demand — but nothing in the September figures shows that turning yet.

Watch the October and November reports. If combine sales rebound even modestly during harvest, it would mark the first sign that deferred replacements are finally moving; another double-digit decline would confirm the slowdown is digging in through year-end.