US wheat crops show mixed conditions as weather shapes harvest, yield outlook

US wheat fields entered mid-June in markedly different shape across regions, with winter wheat harvest expanding in the South while condition ratings diverged sharply between hard red and soft red producing states.

The USDA's latest Crop Progress report, released Monday, showed national winter wheat condition holding at 48% good to excellent, but that headline number masked wide state-level variation. Illinois wheat rated 68% good to excellent, up 2 points from the previous week. Michigan held at 61%. Ohio wheat improved 3 points to 57%.

Conditions deteriorated further in the Plains. Kansas, the top hard red winter wheat state, saw its crop rate 43% good to excellent, down 3 points. Oklahoma slipped 1 point to 51%. Texas wheat held steady at 32%, among the poorest ratings in the country, reflecting persistent drought stress across the southern Plains.

The condition split matters for grain buyers because hard red winter wheat, grown mainly in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, feeds flour for bread and exports, while soft red winter wheat from states like Illinois, Ohio and Michigan goes largely to crackers and pastries. Divergent ratings point to uneven protein levels and supply quality in the upcoming harvest.

Harvest progress is advancing quickly in southern states. Texas farmers had combined 30% of their wheat by Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 24%. Oklahoma had harvested 12%, slightly behind its average pace of 14%.

Crop development also varies. Nationally, 91% of winter wheat had headed, near the five-year average of 90%. Kansas reported 97% headed, while 18% of the state's crop had turned color, indicating maturity is progressing toward harvest.

Spring wheat tells a different story. Growers had planted 94% of the intended spring wheat acreage, matching the five-year average. Emergence reached 79%, slightly behind the typical 82%. In North Dakota, the largest spring wheat state, 96% of the crop had emerged, with condition rated 60% good to excellent. Minnesota spring wheat rated 70% good to excellent. South Dakota's crop stood at 52%.

Minnesota reported 98% of its spring wheat emerged, while South Dakota showed 91% emerged, both tracking near normal development windows.

Durum wheat planting reached 87% complete nationally, ahead of the five-year average of 85%. North Dakota durum planting hit 93%, with 74% of the state's durum crop emerged.\n Barley planting reached 95% complete, near the average pace. Oats planting hit 96%, with 85% of the oat crop emerged nationally.

Weather remains the deciding factor for final yields. Analysts note that recent rainfall in parts of the Midwest helped soft red winter wheat states stabilize ratings, while dry conditions in the southern Plains continue to pressure hard red wheat yield potential. Market attention now turns to harvest results from Kansas and Oklahoma over the next two to three weeks, which will provide the first hard yield data for the 2025 hard red winter wheat crop.

For growers and buyers, the next USDA Crop Progress report, due Monday, will show whether Kansas ratings stabilise or slip further, and whether northern spring wheat conditions improve as emergence completes.