USDA pegs 2026 sunflower crop at 2.3 billion pounds, down 1%

USDA's first production estimate for the 2026 sunflower crop, released in October, pegs output at 2.3 billion pounds — down 1% from the revised 2025 figure of 2.34 billion pounds.

The decline isn't across the board. USDA actually raised oil-type sunflower production by 11.4 million pounds from last year and lifted non-oil-type production by 2.5 million pounds. What drags the national number down is yield, not acres.

What do the acreage numbers show?

Planted area sits at 1.35 million acres — up less than 1% from the June estimate and up 5% from last year. Growers expect to harvest 1.31 million acres, a 1% rise on the June forecast and 4% above 2025. Farmers planted more sunflowers in 2026. They're just getting less from each acre.

How bad are the yields?

The October yield forecast lands at 1,761 pounds per acre. That's 100 pounds below last year's average. If it holds, though, it still ranks as the fourth-highest U.S. sunflower yield on record — a reminder that 2025 set a high bar.

Seven states expect lower yields: California, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Texas is the only state forecasting gains.

North Dakota, the leading producer this year, is projected at 1.06 billion pounds, down 3% from 2025. Its average yield forecast of 1,740 pounds per acre drops 217 pounds per acre year on year — the steepest state-level slide in the report. South Dakota, by contrast, holds nearly steady: 1,959 pounds per acre, just 16 pounds under last year's record high.

USDA's next yield and production estimates arrive in early January.

Why do stocks matter for prices?

Old-crop sunflower seed stocks in all positions on September 1 hit 302.7 million pounds, up 45% from a year ago. On-farm storage accounts for 26.4 million pounds; off-farm stocks total 276.4 million pounds.

The oil-type breakdown:

• Oil-type stocks: 263.4 million pounds — 54% higher than last year, in line with trade expectations
• On-farm oil-type: 20.9 million pounds
• Off-farm oil-type: 242.5 million pounds
• Non-oil stocks: 39.3 million pounds, up 2% and also matching industry estimates — 5.4 million on-farm, 33.9 million off-farm

Hefty carryover plus a smaller crop usually tightens the supply cushion. For crushers, that means competition for bushels. For growers holding old-crop seed, it signals leverage.

What are 2027 contracts paying?

As of mid-October, crushers offer 2027 new-crop cash high-oleic contracts at about $25.50 per hundredweight (cwt), with act-of-God contracts — deals that excuse delivery in cases of crop failure from natural disaster — at $25.

The real kicker sits in oil premiums. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Crush plants pay a 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above that threshold. Deliver seed at 45% oil content and the contract grosses 10% more per cwt.

Run the math. The $25 AOG contract climbs to $27.50. The $25.50 cash contract moves to $28.05. High-oil seed materially changes the economics of an acre, and variety selection plus harvest management now carry a direct price tag.

What should growers watch next?

Three things. USDA's January estimates, which will firm up or cut the 1,761-pound national yield. The direction of that 302.7-million-pound stockpile as it clears through crush demand. And 2027 contract windows — with premiums stacking at 2% per percentage point of oil, locking a high-oleic deal before the January data lands could be the sharper move. Price updates run at sunflowernsa.com and @NatlSunflower on X.