Rainfall of up to 248% of average in parts of the west and north-west of Ireland has left poorly drained soils nationwide waterlogged, Met Éireann warned on Thursday, October 15. Farmers in affected regions face disrupted fieldwork for days, even after the last Status Yellow rain warnings expired at midday.

The national forecaster stated that "moderately drained soils in the west and north-west and poorly drained soils nationwide are waterlogged". That assessment covers a broad sweep of the country, not just the counties that carried warnings.

How saturated are the soils?

Soil moisture deficits (SMDs, the measure of how much water soil can still absorb before it runs out of storage capacity) are generally ranging from -10mm to 2mm. Negative values mean the soil is holding more water than it can store, so any further rain runs off or pools on the surface.

The forecaster expects little relief. "SMDs will generally remain saturated in well drained soils and become waterlogged nationwide in moderately drained soils," Met Éireann said. "Poorly drained soils will also remain waterlogged."

Where did the rain fall?

The past week split the country sharply. Parts of the west and north-west recorded rainfall between 143% and 248% of average. The rest of the country saw below-average amounts, ranging from 46% to 91% of average, with the lowest figures in the south and south-east.

Met Éireann issued Status Yellow rain warnings (the lowest level of its three-tier alert system) for several counties. The warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo remained in place until 6:00a.m. on Thursday. A separate warning for Clare and Kerry expired at midday.

The saturated ground will continue to limit machinery travel and grazing access for days after those warnings lapse.

What about temperatures and sunshine?

Mean air temperatures over the past seven days ran slightly above average, by between 1° and 2.1°. Values ranged from 11.5°, recorded at Knock Airport, to 13.8° at Valentia Observatory in Co. Kerry.

Soil temperatures were also above average, ranging from 11.8° to 14.4° — between 1.7° and 3.7° above normal. Warm soils with excess moisture carry agronomic consequences: crops still in the ground keep growing, but so do diseases, and any nitrogen applied now faces elevated leaching risk.

Sunshine over the past week was generally close to or above average in the east and south-east, ranging from 104% to 142% of average. Stations elsewhere recorded below-average sunshine, between 62% and 96% of average.

What should farmers watch next?

Met Éireann warned of outbreaks of rain on Thursday, with uncertainty in the forecast from Tuesday onward. That uncertainty matters for planning: spraying, spreading and harvesting windows depend on how quickly the well drained soils, currently saturated but not yet waterlogged, begin to recover.

Farmers in the west and north-west, where rainfall ran furthest above average, should expect the slowest return to trafficable ground. The forecaster's message is blunt — moderately drained soils nationwide will join the poorly drained ones in waterlogging if the rain arrives as expected. Watch the next SMD bulletin before committing machinery to marginal ground.