Some 71% of dairy and drystock farms in Ireland have adequate winter fodder supplies after a rapid recovery in grass growth since August, the National Fodder and Food Security Committee (NFFSC) heard on Friday, October 16.

The figures come from around 430 winter fodder budgets completed by Teagasc advisers for drystock and dairy clients nationwide. The data was collected in early October, after most grass silage and maize harvests were finished.

A further 17.5% of farms are close to having adequate winter feed conserved. However, 5% of farms face severe winter feed deficits and another 6% are at risk of significant shortages. The south-east holds the greatest proportion of farms in the high-risk categories, after farmers there relied heavily on supplementary feeding during the July and August drought.

Dr Joe Patton, head of Dairy Knowledge at Teagasc, told the committee meeting, chaired by Mike Magan, that the national picture is broadly in line with previous years of normal grass growth. "In addition, our survey shows that about 1 in 5 farms are in a marginal deficit of 5-10%," he said.

What do the fodder numbers show?

The sector-level detail matters for individual planning. On dairy farms, 63% now report adequate or surplus feed stocks, with 6.2% carrying shortages of less than 20%. Drystock farms are better placed: 76% report adequate or surplus stocks and only 3.6% have shortages below 20%.

Nationally, the weighted average forage surplus stands at 3 to 5%. That remains below the target of 120% (feed supply expressed as a percentage of winter demand), but it marks a substantial improvement since August, when drought had stalled growth across much of the country.

Dr Patton urged farms with very severe shortages to act now to balance supply and demand before housing. "While this is a quite manageable deficit, we encourage these farmers to complete a fodder budget and keep numbers updated as the winter progresses, so that small deficits can be eradicated early," he said of the one-in-five group sitting 5-10% short.

How strong has the grass recovery been?

Michael O'Donovan, head of grassland science at Teagasc, said there had been "very significant grass growth" since the previous NFFSC meeting in August. Pasture Base Ireland, the national grassland recording platform, shows farms have grown an average of 11.3 tonnes of dry matter (DM) per hectare to date — on par with the 5-year average.

The figure is 716kg DM/ha down on the 10-year average and 735kg behind 2025 levels, which O'Donovan described as "a very good grass growing year".

The turnaround came faster than anyone expected in mid-August. "When we were in the middle of August, we would have thought that the recovery was going to be slow," O'Donovan said. "But when you see a grass growth curve of 65kg DM/ha for the middle of September, there's been a phenomenal response nationally, but also on individual farms."

Current growth is running at approximately 49kg DM/ha per day on dairy farms and 37kg on drystock farms. Pre-grazing yields (the mass of grass standing ahead of the grazing herd) sit at roughly 2,200kg DM/ha — a level O'Donovan said is likely an all-time high for this period.

What should farmers watch next?

Based on current predicted growth rates, Teagasc expects average production to exceed 12.5 tonnes DM/ha for the full year, which would put 2026 above 2024 levels.

O'Donovan credited farmers for using the growth spurt well. Farmers "have made excellent use of higher-than-average grass growth rates to replenish feed stocks with third cuts of silage, and importantly also to build grass covers for autumn grazing", he said.

His practical message for the coming weeks is twofold: graze autumn grass tightly before closing paddocks for winter, and revisit the numbers. "We would also like to encourage farmers to re-evaluate their fodder budgets in PastureBase Ireland in the coming weeks and make sure to update the fodder budget with the extra fodder conserved in the past month," he said.

Tom Curran, head of advisory services at Teagasc, confirmed a "very significant improvement" in conserved forage supply, driven largely by strong growth through September and into October. But he flagged the residual problem areas. "Challenges do remain on a proportion of drystock and dairy farms, and it is clear that immediate actions to improve supply or reduce demand will be essential on these farms," he said.

"A number of options are available to farmers and our Teagasc advisers are happy to help farmers with these decisions," Curran added.

For the 11% of farms in severe deficit or at risk, the window for action — buying feed, extending grazing, or reducing stock numbers — narrows once housing begins. For the marginal 5-10% deficit group, an updated fodder budget in the next few weeks is the cheapest insurance against a small shortfall becoming a spring problem.