Irish growers are committing main crop potatoes to farm stores for the first time this season, as the 2026 harvest shifts from direct retail and processing supply into full storage mode.

Until this week, all lifting across the country served immediate retail and processing outlets. The move into store marks the point where the season's economics start to take shape — and this year, those economics remain unusually hard to read.

How bad is the drought damage?

Teagasc tillage specialist Shay Phelan confirmed the uncertainty: "There will be a wide range of yields this year."

He said growers and advisers will not get a reliable picture until trial digs, due to be completed over the coming days, are fully assessed. "We won't get a handle on how crops have actually performed until the results of trial digs, that are due to be completed over the coming days, are fully assessed."

The over-arching driver of the 2026 outcome is drought. But Teagasc says the damage is far from uniform. Within the drought scenario, several factors will separate winners from losers:

• Soil type
• Crop location
• Availability of irrigation

"The availability of irrigation has also made a real difference in determining yields," Phelan explained. For growers who had water access during the dry spell, the contrast against rain-fed crops on light land is expected to be stark.

Despite the weather stress, Phelan offered one reassurance on output quality: "Overall, the quality of new season potatoes is holding up well."

What is happening with prices?

Market pressure is growing for salad and chipping potatoes, according to Phelan. These are varieties grown increasingly in Ireland, yet the market remains heavily dependent on imports — a gap Irish growers are slowly closing.

The Irish Farmers' Association reports that markets, for the most part, remain stable in terms of consumption and retail sales. But consumer behaviour is shifting under the cost of living crisis: shoppers are buying smaller pack sizes at higher frequency. Demand for new season crop is good as supplies come available.

The peeling market remains strong for any remaining potatoes destined for that trade.

Can growers beat the weather?

Harvesting conditions remain excellent, despite heavy rain in many parts of the country last weekend and earlier this week. The forecast for the coming days points to high pressure building across Ireland, which should further facilitate the main crop harvest.

Growers will be striving to get every potato out of the ground before the weather breaks. The window looks open for now, but September's rain served as a reminder of how quickly conditions can turn.

Why final yields decide everything

As in the cereals sector, final yields will determine the economics of Irish potato production in 2026. The margin for error is thinner than in most years.

Growers have incurred enhanced land rental costs this year, alongside significantly increased fertiliser, fuel, machinery and labour costs. The cost of production continues to dominate grower discussions — especially the cost of diesel, with harvest machinery running at full tilt.

Yields are reported to be variable around the country, which fits the pattern Teagasc describes: irrigation access and soil type splitting the national crop into sharply different outcomes.

For growers and buyers alike, the next signal comes within days, when Teagasc completes and assesses its trial digs. Those results will set the yield benchmark for the season — and, with input costs already locked in at record levels, they will decide whether the 2026 potato crop delivers a margin or eats one.