Europe's 2026 drought will remove more than 3.5 million tonnes of potatoes from the combined harvest of Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Great Britain, according to a new analysis from the UK-based think tank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

At prices agreed before the drought, the lost production across the north-western European potato grower (NEPG) countries and Great Britain is worth between €498 million and €818 million.

For the four NEPG countries alone, the exceptionally hot and dry summer weather is expected to knock 3.1 million tonnes off the harvest. Yields are running between 7% and 21% below the five-year average across the region. At pre-drought contract prices, that lost volume is valued at between €405 million and €622 million, with a central estimate of €498 million.

Great Britain adds a further 0.44 million tonnes to the regional deficit and faces its smallest potato harvest on record. British losses alone are put at between £80 million and £169 million.

A market already contracted

The drought has hit a sector that had already cut back. After a glut year in 2025, growers went into the 2026 season planting less: 11% less area in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands and 17% in Belgium.

Those planting decisions alone removed a further 3.6 million tonnes from the potential crop, calculated on five-year average yields. The drought losses sit on top of this market-driven contraction in supply.

Where the tonnage went

Germany carries the largest loss at 1.13 million tonnes. France follows with projected losses of 0.99 million tonnes — a production rate the report describes as the lowest recorded in more than 30 years.

Belgium is projected to lose 0.79 million tonnes, with a striking quality dimension: half of the main frying variety has come in below the size processors want. That undersized crop matters directly for the processing sector, where tuber specification determines whether a lot makes fry grade at all.

The Netherlands fares best of the four, with losses estimated at 0.21 million tonnes.

Prices already moving

The ECIU report finds that these shortages are already moving prices in every channel.

In the processing sector, Belgian free-market potatoes have risen from zero in April to €200/t or more. German processing potatoes are making €240/t against a season low of €15 in June — a sixteenfold increase in three months. British processors are paying over £300/t to secure supply, against £180/t in February.

The fresh market shows the same pattern. French table potatoes opened the season at €520/t against €310/t a year ago, while German table stock is trading at €270-€280/t compared with €150/t in 2025.

For buyers, the implication is clear: processors and packers will keep competing for a diminished, partially undersized crop. For growers with marketable tonnage, current spot and contract levels represent a significant turnaround from the 2025 glut.

For the sector as a whole, the 2026 numbers raise a harder question — how much of the yield reduction reflects one-off drought and heatwave damage, and how much signals a recurring water constraint. Farmers and buyers should watch harvest completion figures, final storage assessments and the Belgian processing sector's reaction to undersized frying potatoes as the season develops.