South African groundnut output climbs to 65 620t as plantings shrink

South Africa's groundnut production reached an estimated 65 620t in 2026, up 3,6% from 63 350t in 2025, even though the planted area fell from 48 750ha to 44 650ha. The gain came entirely from yield: the national average rose from 1,30t/ha to 1,47t/ha, according to the Crop Estimates Committee's September 2026 report.

Adri Botha, chairperson of the South African Groundnut Forum, told Farmer's Weekly that favourable rainfall drove the yield improvement, with some farmers achieving exceptional results. Conditions varied sharply between regions, though, and excessive rain stopped some farmers from reaching their fields at harvest.

Despite those setbacks, Botha described 2026 as a very positive year, with groundnut prices comparing favourably against competing crops.

What are the prospects for the new season?

Soil moisture levels are currently favourable, giving the planting season a promising start. The decisive factor will be rainfall in January, when the strongest effects of El Niño and its associated dry conditions are expected to coincide with a critical stage of crop development.

Groundnuts can recover from drought if sufficient follow-up rain arrives, Botha said, but earlier planting would be preferable to reduce that risk.

Alfonso Visser, president of SA Peanuts, shares the optimism on prices. Groundnut values have held stable at levels similar to the previous season, while other crops have seen greater volatility — a comparison that matters directly for rotation decisions.

He expects the area planted to groundnuts to rise by more than 10% in the coming season. Production may not grow by the same margin because of the anticipated El Niño. Conditions so far have been better than anticipated, and planting has already started in irrigated areas, with particularly promising conditions around Douglas in the Northern Cape.

How much room do new cultivars create?

Both industry representatives pointed to improved genetics as the biggest opportunity to raise yields and expand production. Botha said the industry is working to improve seed purity and speed up the registration of new cultivars. Four cultivars from private companies, plus another two from the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), could be registered within the next two years.

The ARC is also advancing its seed purity programme through DNA fingerprinting (genetic testing that verifies a seed lot's identity). This will become a requirement for future cultivar registrations in South Africa.

The Groundnut Forum has separately launched a long-term agronomic research project to work out why yields differ substantially between neighbouring farms. Initial data is expected next year and could then guide better production practices.

Visser said South Africa has considerable potential to expand groundnut production, particularly because processors have already increased their processing capacity. The barrier is machinery: groundnuts need specialised equipment, so grain farmers must make additional capital investments. In his view, the favourable returns from groundnuts can justify that spend over time.

What does the tariff change mean for processors?

The general customs duty on imported peanut butter rose from R0,99/kg to 20% ad valorem (a percentage of the product's value), effective 24 July 2026. The change closed a gap in which imported raw groundnuts attracted a 10% duty while finished peanut butter entered South Africa at a substantially lower tariff.

Botha said the adjustment aims to put local peanut butter manufacturers on a more equal footing with imports, but is unlikely to move producer prices significantly. Visser is more bullish, believing the change will create a larger market for locally produced groundnuts.

The industry is also pursuing an increase in the import tariff on blanched peanuts to stimulate domestic production and lift income per hectare.

What should farmers watch?

Botha warned that limited crop protection options, particularly for nematode control (microscopic soil worms that attack roots), are a growing challenge. The Groundnut Forum is investigating alternatives and developing improved guidelines so available products are used effectively at critical growth stages, without unnecessary applications.

With stronger genetics, expanded processing capacity and renewed grower interest, the industry remains optimistic about its longer-term prospects. Farmers should watch January rainfall, the cultivar registration pipeline over the next two years, and the outcome of the blanched peanut tariff push.