South Africa's major dams stood at about 90% capacity on 5 October, yet agricultural leaders warn that headline water figure means little for the rain-fed producers most exposed to a strong El Niño now forecast for the season ahead.

The warning came at a high-level round-table on El Niño preparedness held on 12 October in Pretoria, Gauteng, where stakeholders said hotter, drier conditions could develop earlier than usual. Rainfall is expected to deteriorate towards the latter part of the season. The Free State, North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo were identified as particularly vulnerable.

"As of 5 October, in the major dams, water levels stood at about 90%. While this is encouraging for irrigated agriculture, it may not mean as much for farmers who depend on rain-fed production," said Dr Simphiwe Ngqangweni, CEO of the National Agricultural Marketing Council.

Ngqangweni cautioned that South Africa's advantages over the 2015/16 season would not benefit all producers equally.

What advantages does South Africa hold?

The country enters this El Niño in a materially stronger position than the severe 2015/16 season. Stakeholders cited:

• Improved soil moisture
• Favourable grain stocks
• Higher dam levels
• Advances in agricultural technology

Those buffers are real but uneven. Irrigated operations draw directly on the 90% dam levels; dryland farmers in the four vulnerable provinces depend on rainfall that forecasts suggest will thin as the season progresses.

Farm for profitability, not maximum production

Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB, framed El Niño as a financial risk to manage rather than an inevitable production disaster.

"El Niño is a risk you plan for, not a guarantee that things go wrong. The question to ask is whether your farming business is positioned to handle a more difficult season if it does materialise," Makube said in a press release.

His core advice is structural: build three cash flow budgets before committing to seasonal expenditure. One for a normal season. One for a weaker season. One for severe drought. The exercise exposes potential financing shortfalls while there is still time to act on them.

Makube advised against planting every available hectare or holding livestock numbers beyond the veld's carrying capacity. Every hectare planted ties up cash. Every animal the veld cannot support becomes a feed bill.

"It may make more sense to focus inputs on the lands and livestock with the best yield potential than to plant or feed everything," he said.

He also warned against indiscriminate cost-cutting, particularly on fertiliser, maintenance and experienced labour, where short-term savings can undermine future profitability.

Which financial warning signs matter?

Farmers were told to monitor early indicators of distress closely. Three were flagged at the round-table:

• Accessing overdrafts earlier than usual
• Carrying supplier accounts into subsequent months
• Growing reliance on short-term credit

Producers anticipating repayment difficulties should approach their banks early, Makube urged, with updated financial statements and realistic cash flow projections in hand.

Wandile Sihlobo, presidential envoy on agriculture and land, said the round-table's recommendations would feed into government drought preparedness planning. Further engagement is planned with financial institutions and industry stakeholders.

What should farmers watch next?

The greatest danger, Makube emphasised, is not one poor harvest but the prolonged financial recovery that can follow it. The distinction matters for every planting decision made in the coming weeks.

"A good season always comes again. The goal is to make sure your business is still in a position to make the most of it when it does," he said.

For South African producers, the practical sequence is set: three-scenario budgeting now, disciplined hectare and herd decisions before planting, and early engagement with lenders at the first sign of strain. Follow-up sessions between government, banks and industry bodies will shape the support framework farmers can draw on as the season unfolds.