Super El Niño forecast pushes Free State farmers to cut maize hectares

Seasonal forecasts point to a super El Niño for summer 2026/27, and South Africa's grain farmers are already responding by cutting maize hectares on marginal soils and lowering planting densities. The South African Weather Service and the Department of Agriculture expect below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across the summer rainfall areas, with elevated risk of heat stress, moisture deficits and uneven rainfall distribution.

The yield threat is rarely a simple shortage of seasonal rain. Losses typically come from delayed and scattered rainfall, mid-season dry spells, heat stress during flowering, pollination or grain fill, and poor nutrient uptake under drought conditions. That mechanism matters because it changes what farmers can control: planting dates, crop choice and input placement matter more than total seasonal rainfall.

What do agronomists advise?

Jaco Naudé, area sales manager for Pannar Seed in the Free State, recommends adjusting planting strategies rather than abandoning the season. His list of measures includes reducing maize hectares on marginal soils, planting sunflower instead, staggering planting dates to spread risk, and reviewing fertiliser and planting rates. Irrigating during cooler periods of the day can also mitigate stress during warm spells, he says.

Charles Basson, portfolio and technical marketing manager for row crops at Syngenta Seeds South Africa, focuses on soil temperature at planting and in the first days afterwards. "Temperature fluctuations between warm days and cool nights can cause crop stress, and they play a major role in activating the Sclerotinia fungus that lurks in the soil, which can affect sunflowers," he says. "When temperatures remain stable, sclerotia are less likely to activate; it's temperature fluctuation that acts as the fungus's biological alarm clock." Sclerotinia is a fungal disease (its survival bodies are called sclerotia) that damages sunflowers and other broadleaf crops. For maize, Basson stresses weed control during germination and the first weeks of development.

Seed treatments (chemical or biological coatings applied to seed before planting) also have a role. Yolandi Furniss, Syngenta Seedcare's marketing lead for Africa and the Middle East, says nematode control treatments reduce risk in a dry summer. "Nematode damage is often worse under drought stress. When soil moisture is limited, root systems already struggle to access water, and nematodes can further reduce root efficiency, which can amplify yield losses," she explains. Nematodes are microscopic soil worms that feed on roots. Early protection helps young roots establish quickly, which is valuable when crops must build deep root systems to withstand later drought.

Why is this season economically different?

Corné Louw, head of applied economics and member services at Grain SA, cautions that 2026/27 is not a year for untested products or management practices. "Producers are facing a challenging combination of elevated input costs, particularly energy-related inputs influenced by instability in the Middle East, relatively low grain prices, and the risk of drought conditions later in the season," he says.

Careful input procurement becomes critical. "Farmers should ensure they purchase the correct inputs, in the right quantities and of the right quality, at competitive prices," Louw says. He recommends rebuilding fertiliser programmes from sound soil analyses and realistic yield expectations, and knowing production costs for each crop and each management zone so planting decisions protect profitability and cash flow.

How are farmers responding?

Planting is under way in the western production areas, and the pattern is consistent: less maize, lower densities, more oilseeds.

• Petrus Roux, Kromvlei Boerdery, Hoopstad: plants 50% of his land to maize and 50% to groundnuts, soya bean and sunflower, alongside cattle and game. Planning for the next season starts straight after harvest. "We've done our planning and will act accordingly."
• Le Roux Erasmus, Leeuwkrantz Boerdery, between Hoopstad and Bothaville: after years of higher densities, he is planting at a lower seeding rate. He planted sunflower and maize slightly earlier because late-summer and winter rains left sufficient soil moisture. "Do what you can with the information at your disposal. That's all you can do."
• Kobus le Roux, Grootrust Boerdery, Hoopstad: will cut maize hectares, especially on marginal soils, and take no unnecessary risks.
• Pietie Labuschagne, Robyn Boerdery, Hoopstad: split his sunflower planting, half in October and half in December as usual; he will use lower densities and leave unplanted fields fallow.
• Hendrik Kotzé, Hendiko Boerdery, Hoopstad: planting less maize because of El Niño predictions, high input costs, the low maize price at decision time and current carry-over stocks. He will plant more sunflower and keep trial plantings on their usual schedule to see how El Niño affects the hybrids. He avoids splitting planting dates because timing complicates machinery management through spraying and harvest.
• Christo Groenewald, CJG Boerdery near Hertzogville: uses variable-rate fertiliser and planting — a precision farming technique that adjusts inputs within fields — and will cut fertiliser applications across the board given fertiliser and diesel costs. He is shifting area from maize into soya bean and sunflower.

Watch how the El Niño forecast firms up over the coming weeks: the decisions still open — staggered planting dates and final fertiliser orders — depend on whether the predicted moisture deficits materialise by mid-season.