54% of the U.S. corn crop and 57% of the U.S. soybean crop were rated in good or excellent condition in the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress report.

The two percentages anchor a season with a narrower-than-usual cushion for late-season weather stress. Both readings sit below the five-year average for the equivalent week, with corn showing a wider gap than soybeans.

What does the USDA crop progress report cover?

USDA NASS collects crop condition ratings each week during the growing season from farm reporters in the major corn and soybean producing states. Respondents rate fields in five tiers:

• Very poor
• Poor
• Fair
• Good
• Excellent

The "good to excellent" share — what traders and agronomists call the G/E rating — is the headline number most watched during the growing season. The first corn condition rating of the year typically appears in late May once emergence is complete. Soybean ratings start a few weeks later. The survey continues weekly through harvest.

Why are these two numbers significant?

A corn G/E rating below 60% in late June or early July has historically correlated with a U.S. national yield below the long-run trendline. The 54% reading therefore places the crop entering the silking and pollination window under measurable weather stress. Most agronomists treat pollination as the single biggest yield-defining stretch of the corn calendar.

Soybeans carry a 57% rating, also below the five-year average for the equivalent week. Soybean yield is less sensitive to mid-season condition than corn — the crop can compensate through pod-setting later in the season — but the lower reading still narrows the margin for any August deterioration.

What changes for a farmer's marketing decision?

When national corn ratings slip below 60%, new-crop December futures typically draw a short-term price reaction at the Chicago Board of Trade. End users — ethanol plants, livestock feeders and exporters — often respond by tightening basis bids, particularly in the Western Corn Belt where weather stress tends to show up first in the national data.

For livestock producers, lower ratings point to feed-cost pressure. DDGS and corn silage pricing reflects the same weather concerns. Forward contracting a portion of expected new-crop bushels off a sub-60% G/E print has historically looked favourable for sellers.

For soybean growers, the marketing impact is smaller. Markets tend to discount mid-season soybean ratings because the crop retains more recovery potential through pod-fill.

Where does the gap between the two crops come from?

Corn and soybean ratings normally move in tandem because they share weather across most producing states. A 3-point gap in late June is unusual. The split most often reflects one of two patterns:

• Corn suffered more from late planting or early-summer water stress than soybeans
• Soybeans were planted later, leaving them at a less vulnerable growth stage when the worst weather hit

What should farmers and agronomists watch next?

The next two USDA NASS Crop Progress releases will determine whether 54% and 57% mark the seasonal low. Watch for:

• Any week-over-week decline of 2–3 percentage points or more — confirms falling yield potential
• Flat-to-improving readings — signals the lows were driven by manageable early-season stress
• Differing trends between corn and soybeans — points to crop-specific problems, not just weather

Beyond the crop progress table, NOAA's 6-to-10 and 8-to-14 day precipitation forecasts for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Nebraska will drive the next direction of the market. The kernel-filling window for corn and the pod-setting window for soybeans both open across the next two weeks.

The next USDA report lands Monday. After that, the conversation shifts from condition to actual harvest yield.