Oklahoma will harvest roughly half the wheat it produced last year, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture forecast.

The state's 2026 crop is projected at about 40 million bushels, down from roughly 80 million in 2025. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service attributes the collapse to persistent drought that has gripped key growing regions since autumn.

"We're looking at one of the shortest crops we've seen in decades," one analyst told the Oklahoma Farm Report.

Dry conditions delayed planting last autumn and stressed the crop through winter. Fields that did emerge entered spring with poor root development, leaving plants vulnerable to further moisture deficits.

The production drop will ripple through regional grain markets. Oklahoma typically supplies wheat to domestic millers and export channels via Gulf ports. A smaller crop tightens supplies and could lift basis levels for hard red winter wheat in the southern Plains.

For farmers, the forecast sharpens decisions on the remaining season. Growers weighing whether to harvest thin stands for grain or cut them for hay will compare grain prices against forage values. Others may file crop insurance claims, where indemnities hinge on appraised yields.

Weather outlooks offer little near-term relief. Forecasters see below-normal precipitation persisting across the southern Plains through spring, with soil moisture reserves already depleted.

Market watchers will track the USDA's next monthly supply and demand report, due in mid-June, for revised yield and harvested-acreage figures. Any further cuts could push wheat futures higher and squeeze margins for regional flour millers.