Hurricane Polo drove weekly rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across the Desert Southwest, with the heaviest bands hitting eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The deluge, sourced from eastern Pacific tropical moisture and tracked in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, brought the first meaningful relief to drought-stricken Plains growers since August.

What did the Southwest storm deliver?

The system curved northeast from Baja California into southern New Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Successive rounds of very heavy rain fell across New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. Weekly totals reached 5 to 10 inches in some locations — moisture that accounted for a large portion of annual rainfall.

Two hurricanes indirectly contributed:

• Hurricane Odalys added early-period moisture to a near-record moist environment over the normally arid Desert Southwest.
• Hurricane Nolo hit Hawaiian east-facing slopes with heavy rain, though those areas were not in drought.

The heaviest accumulations eased long-standing drought across eastern New Mexico into northwestern Texas, with beneficial rain extending into southern and eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and Nebraska.

Why does the South still need 20-25 inches?

Central and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas remain under severe, extreme, or exceptional drought classifications. The two key states need 20 to 25 inches of rainfall over three months to break out.

Last week offered virtually no rain across the rest of the region. Combined with temperatures 6 to 12°F above average, the shortfall drove rapid-onset drought intensification. The U.S. Drought Monitor attributes the worsening to persistently hot weather with virtually no rainfall through much of August and September.

The lone exceptions sat in far western Texas and the western Oklahoma Panhandle, where tropical moisture from Odalys and Polo dropped several inches.

What about the Midwest and High Plains?

The Midwest split sharply along a persistent summer storm track:

• Iowa to Ohio: prolific seasonal rainfall left very little drought or abnormal dryness.
• Northwestern Minnesota: fully relaxed out of drought after more than 5 inches fell on a previously severe-to-extreme area.
• Southern Missouri: drought continued to intensify.

The High Plains recorded almost exclusively drought improvements. Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska benefited directly from the east-Pacific tropical connection, gaining relief despite temperatures running 6°F or more above average. Northern and eastern North Dakota saw substantial reductions near the Canadian border.

What's forecast next?

The Weather Prediction Center has issued moderate threats for excessive rainfall from the Southwest into Texas, Oklahoma, and northward into Nebraska and Iowa as Hurricane Polo's remnants track east. Drought-busting rains may be possible across the South this week.

In the 6- to 10-day window, the Climate Prediction Center projects:

• Western U.S.: well-above-average temperatures with below-normal precipitation.
• Southern Texas to the Southeast, including Florida: above-average precipitation chances.

Outside the Southwest, the western U.S. held steady-state drought, with only minor improvements in the northern Rockies, Oregon, southwest Montana, and northwest Wyoming.

Farmers along the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle border should watch Wednesday's U.S. Drought Monitor release for any upgrades after the first measurable rainfall since late summer.