Drought Retreats Across Four Corners as 4-8 Inches Fall on Colorado Border

Between 4 and 8 inches of precipitation fell on areas near the Colorado and New Mexico border this past week, driving two-category improvements on the U.S. Drought Monitor across the wettest parts of southern Colorado. The same weekly report shows D3 to D4 exceptional drought now dominating Arkansas, where most locations have recorded 8 to 16 inches less precipitation than normal over the past four months — generally less than half of normal.

The divide is stark. The West and High Plains gained moisture while the eastern half of the 48 contiguous states largely stayed dry, according to the report written by Richard Tinker of CPC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP.

Where did the rain actually land?

Most of the eastern half of the country received little or no rain. Exceptions included the eastern tier of the Florida Peninsula, which recorded over 2 inches in some areas, the Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes region with a few tenths to nearly an inch, and parts of coastal southeastern Texas with a few tenths to a little over an inch.

Farther west, moderate to heavy precipitation stretched from the northern Great Plains to the southern High Plains and westward to the Pacific Coast. Amounts of at least 0.5 inch were common, though the lower Colorado Valley, parts of the northern Rockies and some lower elevation locations caught only light totals of a few tenths.

The heaviest readings — over 2 inches — covered central and southeastern sections of the Four Corners region and scattered higher-elevation spots from western Montana southward through far western Wyoming.

What changed for each region?

South. Central and western Texas and Oklahoma absorbed repeated heavy precipitation, and some areas near the West region are now free of dryness and drought. Farther east the picture reverses: sparse rainfall and another abnormally dry, warm week drove broadscale deterioration across the eastern fringes of Oklahoma and Texas.

Midwest. Several tenths of an inch fell on the northwestern Great Lakes, most of Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, but the vast majority of the region stayed dry. D1 to D4 conditions expanded in southern and eastern Missouri, and D3 to D4 now covers a large swath of central and southern Missouri. A band from Iowa through northern Missouri remains largely free from impactful dryness after several consecutive wet months.

High Plains. Excessive precipitation and flooding hit much of central and southern Colorado. One-category improvements spread across the southern half of the region, northeastern Colorado, central through northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. Where several inches fell in south-central and southwestern Colorado, map authors introduced two-category improvements.

West. Northern and eastern New Mexico took 2 to locally 5 inches, with localized flooding and the most widespread improvement in the region. Western Montana also gained. Long-term moisture deficits persist across much of the West despite the wet stretch, so analysts removed few drought areas entirely.

What should farmers watch next?

The five-day outlook through Nov. 2 calls for 1.5 to locally near 4 inches across central Arizona, the higher elevations of the central Rockies — including parts of Colorado already inundated this week — much of the High Plains of Texas and part of the central Gulf Coast. Moderate amounts of 0.5 to approaching 2 inches should cover most Rocky Mountain high ground and a swath from the southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains.

Temperatures will split the country. Daily highs should average 4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across the central and western Four Corners, the Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest, while the northern and eastern Great Plains run 5 to 13 degrees above normal.

For Nov. 3 to 7, forecasters marginally favor above-normal precipitation over most of the contiguous U.S. Much of Montana stands as the exception, with drier-than-normal conditions expected. Above-normal temperatures should dominate nationally, with only the Four Corners region averaging closer to normal. Growers in Arkansas and the southern Midwest should track whether the early-November pattern finally delivers the rainfall that four months of deficits demand.