Oklahoma Cotton Production Collapses 70% in USDA November Forecast

Oklahoma cotton production will fall 69.9% to 200,000 bales in 2026, down from 665,000 bales in 2025, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service October Crop Production report. The yield forecast of 300 pounds per acre marks a 67.1% collapse from last year's 912 pounds per acre, the steepest decline of any crop and state in this report.

The damage comes from weather, not acreage. Oklahoma farmers harvested 320,000 acres of cotton, down only 8.6% from 350,000 acres. A strong El Niño drove wetness across most areas west of a line from central Texas to Lake Superior during October. Remnant moisture from former Hurricanes Rachel, Simon, Trudy and Vance fed northeastward ahead of weather systems crossing the western United States. In the Four Corners region, two rounds of locally excessive rainfall, little over a week apart, produced some of the worst flooding in decades.

What does the national picture show?

US corn production is forecast at 15.9 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 6% from last year. If realized, that would still rank as the second highest grain corn production on record for the United States. The national yield sits at 179.6 bushels per acre, down 6.9 bushels from last year's record 186.5. Record yields are forecast in Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. By November 1, farmers had harvested 74% of corn acreage, three points behind the five-year average.

Soybeans buck the trend. Production is forecast at a record 4.57 billion bushels, up 7% from last year, on a record yield of 53.3 bushels per acre and 85.9 million harvested acres. November objective yield data show lower pod counts in six of the 11 major producing states, with Kansas posting the sharpest drop at 358 fewer pods per 18 square feet.

Cotton tells a harder story nationally. All cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 5% from 2025, with yields averaging 775 pounds per harvested acre, down 77 pounds. Ginnings totaled 3,701,850 running bales before November 1, and 63% of acreage was harvested, nine points ahead of the five-year average. Sorghum production is forecast at 274 million bushels, down 37% from last year, on a yield of 52.4 bushels per acre against 72.6 in 2025.

How hard did the Southern Plains get hit?

Oklahoma corn: production of 45.57 million bushels, down 23.0% from 59.17 million; yield of 93 bushels per acre, down 23.8% from 122; harvested area of 490,000 acres, up 1.0%. Kansas corn: 812.2 million bushels, down 13.2%; yield of 124 bushels per acre, down 14.5% from 145; 6.55 million acres, up 1.6%. Texas corn: 254.4 million bushels, down 12.0%; yield of 120 bushels per acre, down 11.1%; 2.12 million acres, down 0.9%.

Cotton losses run deeper than corn. Texas, the largest producer, will harvest 4.143 million bales, down 21.3% from 5.265 million, on a yield of 507 pounds per acre, down 19.4%. Kansas cotton production halves to 80,000 bales from 155,000, with yield falling 48.3% to 499 pounds per acre on unchanged area of 77,000 acres.

Sorghum, the Plains staple, takes the largest percentage hit nationally. Kansas production falls 42.6% to 144.55 million bushels on a yield of 59 bushels per acre, down from 90. Oklahoma sorghum drops 34.9% to 15.3 million bushels; Texas declines 24.0% to 76.5 million. National sorghum harvest stood at 64% complete on November 1, fourteen points behind the five-year average.

What should farmers watch next?

Soybean outcomes split by region. Oklahoma soybean yield fell 31.0% to 20 bushels per acre, yet harvested area jumped 42.9% to 500,000 acres, holding production nearly flat at 10.0 million bushels. Kansas soybean yield dropped 38.1% to 30 bushels per acre, cutting production 28.3% to 140.7 million bushels. Texas production rose 2.3% to 2.945 million bushels despite a 3.1% yield decline.

Growers should watch the January final production estimates, when NASS reconciles these November 1 condition-based forecasts against actual gin, elevator and warehouse records.