The Old Farmer's Almanac has published its Winter 2026-27 forecast, releasing its long-range outlook ahead of the season that will shape fuel budgets, livestock feeding plans and next year's planting decisions across North America.

The Almanac, which has issued annual weather predictions since 1792, remains one of the most widely read long-range forecasts in American agriculture. Its winter outlooks draw particular attention from grain growers, cattle producers and hay makers because winter conditions set the stage for everything from soil moisture reserves to pest survival rates and propane costs for poultry and hog barns.

Why farmers still read it

The publication's staying power rests on distribution as much as prediction. Printed copies reach farm stores, feed shops and hardware counters across rural America every August, and its forecasts circulate widely in farm media each year — this season's edition, reported by AGDAILY, is no exception.

The Almanac's editorial staff build their outlooks from a proprietary formula that traces back to founder Robert B. Thomas. The modern version combines solar science, climatology and meteorology, according to the publication. It divides the United States into 18 regional zones and issues month-by-month predictions for each, a format that lets readers look up conditions for their own county-level region rather than a single national summary.

That regional structure matters for farmers. A winter forecast for the Corn Belt carries different operational weight than one for the High Plains or the Southeast, where winter rainfall governs winter wheat establishment and forage availability.

What the forecast drives on farm

Long-range winter outlooks influence several concrete decisions, whatever their accuracy:

Fuel and energy planning. A forecast pointing toward a colder-than-normal winter pushes livestock operators to lock in propane and heating oil contracts earlier. Grain dryers that ran hard through a wet harvest add to the pressure.

Feed budgets. Severe cold increases feed intake in cattle by up to 30% in sustained conditions. Feeders who expect a harsh winter adjust purchase timing and hay inventories accordingly.

Winter wheat and cover crops. Snow cover insulates winter wheat crowns against kill events. Growers in Kansas, Oklahoma and the Pacific Northwest watch outlooks for signals on snowfall probability, which affects variety selection and planting-date adjustments in the following cycle.

Input timing. A mild winter can raise pest and disease pressure the following spring — more surviving bean leaf beetles, aphids and overwintering pathogens — which changes seed treatment and early-season insecticide planning.

The accuracy question

Farmers should treat the Almanac as one input among several, not a planning baseline. The publication itself claims roughly 80% accuracy, a figure meteorologists dispute. Studies of long-range forecasts consistently show that predictions beyond about two weeks carry limited skill, and seasonal outlooks from agencies such as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center — which the Almanac's product competes with for farmers' attention — rely on ensemble modeling of ocean-atmosphere patterns like El Niño and La Niña rather than solar-cycle formulas.

The practical risk for growers is anchoring: making a six-figure input decision on a seasonal forecast that may perform no better than climatology. The disciplined approach is to use the Almanac's outlook to frame scenarios — a hard winter, a mild winter, an average one — and cost each. Growers who scenario-plan protect margins regardless of which forecast proves right.

Where the signal is stronger

Some winter forecast indicators carry more reliability than others. ENSO state — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation — offers the clearest seasonal signal for North American winters, tilting odds toward wetter conditions in the South and drier conditions in the North during El Niño years, with La Niña roughly inverting the pattern. Farmers checking the 2026-27 outlook should read it alongside the current ENSO forecast to judge how much confidence the seasonal picture deserves.

Soil moisture going into freeze-up is another anchor that beats any almanac. Fields entering winter with full profiles in the Corn Belt or Plains change the calculus for 2027 planting regardless of snowfall totals.

The road ahead

The Almanac's full regional breakdowns for Winter 2026-27 are available in the print edition and on the publication's website, with month-by-month detail for each of its 18 zones. Farmers should watch NOAA's official winter outlook, typically released in October, as the higher-skill benchmark against which to test the Almanac's regional calls before committing to fuel, feed and input purchases for the season.