SA cherry crop jumps 111%, but China access stalls and shelf life shrinks

South Africa's cherry production jumped 111% in the 2025/26 season compared with 2024/25 — and the industry still can't catch a break.

Karien Bezuidenhout, manager of Hortgro's CherriesZA, told Farmer's Weekly the season just past was excellent on volume. The one ahead looks less generous. Heatwaves followed by cold fronts hit fruit set, and quality has slipped along with it.

"Both the northern production regions and the Western Cape started harvesting earlier than usual," she said. "Fruit quality has not been as good as we would have liked. We are concerned that shelf life could be shorter than usual."

For a crop that lives and dies by airfreight and fresh-market premiums, a short shelf life is not a footnote. It's a margin problem.

Production should keep climbing as younger orchards mature — roughly 30% of South Africa's cherry orchards are not yet in full production — but Bezuidenhout doesn't expect a repeat of last season's exceptional growth.

What does the China deal change for growers?

On paper, quite a lot. South Africa and China signed a market access protocol on 8 September 2026, opening the door to the world's most sought-after cherry market. In practice, the door is still jammed. Outstanding administrative processes between the two governments mean exporters cannot ship fruit there yet.

Clive Garrett, marketing manager at ZZ2, which produces cherries in northern South Africa, started harvesting in early October expecting the market to be live. It wasn't.

"We had around six importers lined up to take our cherries, so the demand was certainly there," he said. "Had the market opened in time, we could have entered China ahead of Chile."

That last detail stings. Northern producers expect to finish harvesting by the end of October, and Garrett considers it unlikely they'll benefit from Chinese access this season. Bezuidenhout said Western Cape producers might still get a shot — if the paperwork lands in time — but exporters will weigh shipping costs and Chilean competition before committing fruit.

South Africa's one structural edge is timing. "Our harvest starts slightly earlier than Chile's, but once [Chile's] volumes reach the market, South Africa's production will be very small in comparison," Bezuidenhout said. Once Chile arrives, it arrives like a tide.

Squeezed windows and squeezed margins

The early harvest has been a double blow. ZZ2, one of the earliest South African suppliers to international markets, watched its traditional head start evaporate as the Western Cape began picking sooner — and Chile entered the market early too.

"We lost some of the window we would normally have had," Garrett said. ZZ2's fruit quality held up, with exports going to the Middle East, Far East, EU and UK. All of the company's cherries travel by air, including shipments to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia — markets the Middle East conflict has not disrupted, though rising airfreight costs are biting.

"Prices have remained largely unchanged from last year, but our input and freight costs have increased significantly," Garrett said. "This is putting pressure on margins, particularly as there has been no corresponding increase in selling prices."

International demand, he noted, remains strong. Demand isn't the problem. Logistics and arithmetic are.

There's a European opening too: the later arrival of Chilean sea freight shipments creates a window for local exporters, though Bezuidenhout flagged congestion and delays at Cape Town harbour, plus escalating conflict-related costs, as ongoing concerns.

Where the industry stands

According to Hortgro's Key Deciduous Fruit Statistics 2025 report, released in September, South Africa had 802ha under cherries in 2025, of which 352ha sit in Ceres in the Western Cape.

Of the 3,306t produced in 2024/25:

• 33% was exported
• 57% went to the domestic market
• 9% was processed

The UK took 60% of exports, followed by the EU at 18%, the Middle East at 12%, and the Far East and Asia at 9%.

Garrett stays optimistic about the long term, China included, but expects orchard expansion to remain gradual. Establishment costs are high and the crop is unforgiving.

"Cherries are a difficult crop to manage, with a steep learning curve," he said. "We're seeing existing producers expand gradually rather than large numbers of new entrants. But the potential is there, and China will give us another market through which to spread our risk."

Watch for two things next: finalisation of the China protocol in time for Western Cape shipments, and whether Cape Town harbour can clear the congestion before the Chilean volumes arrive.