'Super' El Niño Lines Up Soaking Winter for Drought-Hit Texas

By Daniel Okafor

Panhandle fields absorbed 8-9 inches of rain over recent weeks, yet most of Texas still shows drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor map. That gap between soggy surfaces and empty subsoil is the number that matters heading into winter, and it's exactly what a historically strong El Niño may close.

Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., state cropping systems specialist and professor in the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service's Department of Soil and Crop Sciences at Bryan-College Station, said the October storms don't tell the full story.

"We do have wet fields in places right now, but it's surface, so it's not deep moisture," he said.

Why surface rain isn't enough

Rainfall that builds deep moisture — the reserve crops draw on through summer — has been lacking for years across the Panhandle, West, South and South Central Texas. A wet spring lets some producers get by, but the benefit fades fast.

"It dries up quickly because you just don't have a lot of deep moisture," Schnell said. "And you see that in stream flows, ponds and lakes – they're still low."

Needs vary by region. Panhandle and South Texas producers need winter rain to recharge soil profiles, and they'll also need in-season precipitation next year to lighten the load on irrigation systems.

A wet pattern cuts both ways in the near term. Producers planting winter wheat, oats and cool-season forages over the next month could face delays if repeated rains keep tractors and drills out of fields.

"It's just, when does it come and how much, and do we get enough of it to really recharge those profiles that are probably pretty dry in most areas of the state?" Schnell said.

What makes this El Niño 'super'?

John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Professor in the Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said no historical match exists for the current event. But six El Niños over the past 75 years came close in strength, and they offer a preview.

The last significant winter El Niño was 2015-2016. The wettest winter in that span came from 1991-1992.

"They generally produce wet weather from October through April, especially October through February, and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures," Nielsen-Gammon said. "Not dramatically so, but on the cool side because of all the rain, mainly."

Those past events also delivered increased snow to the northern half of the state. Computer models simulating this year's El Niño point the same direction — wet and probably cool — giving forecasters strong confidence.

The mechanics behind the forecast

El Niño strength hinges on Pacific trade winds, which normally pull cool water to the surface along the equator. When the winds fluctuate, so does the current carrying that cool water. This year, the current has nearly shut down.

"So, it's almost as strong as an El Niño can get," Nielsen-Gammon said. "We've got nothing but hot tropical surface water across the whole of the tropical Pacific."

The unusually warm tropics sharpen the temperature contrast with higher latitudes. That spins up a stronger jet stream sitting farther south than normal.

"That puts us more in the crosshairs of the weather systems that are carried along by the jet stream," he said.

What should farmers watch next?

The early October storms look like the kickoff to the pattern. Parts of Texas have already logged normal October rainfall, and the Panhandle — previously especially dry — caught good moisture in the past two weeks.

"It may be too late for many agricultural crop purposes, but it'll be nice to have the water in the ground for the wintertime," Nielsen-Gammon said.

Outlooks consistently show El Niño peaking around December and weakening through spring. The spring after an El Niño tends to bring a milder severe weather season, and La Niña has a good chance of developing next year.

"So, this is probably a one-shot deal," Nielsen-Gammon said.

For Texas producers, that means one winter to bank moisture: expect planting delays where rains repeat, watch soil profiles rather than ponded surfaces, and treat 2024's recharge as the window before a likely drier flip.