October Storm Dumps 8 Inches on Oklahoma, Easing Plains Drought

A record crest of 18.91 feet on the Middle Wichita River near Guthrie, Texas, caps a week in which a single storm system delivered 3 to 5 inches of rain across the southeastern Texas Panhandle and up to 8 inches in western and central Oklahoma, driving widespread one-category drought improvements across the Southern Plains.

The Oct. 13-15 system, tracked by the National Weather Service offices in Lubbock and Norman, landed after a hot, dry August and September. Oklahoma City recorded 4.99 inches by late afternoon on Oct. 14; Lubbock picked up 2.04 inches. Rainfall departures locally exceeded 6 inches above normal. The moisture cut into exceptional drought (D4, the monitor's worst category) across western and northern Texas, the Panhandle and much of Oklahoma, though accumulated deficits kept analysts from removing drought outright.

Where did drought get worse?

The Lower Mississippi Valley moved the other way. Extreme drought expanded across northern Arkansas, and exceptional drought developed or expanded across southern Arkansas. Worsening 30-, 60- and 90-day precipitation indicators, depleted soil moisture and exceptionally low streamflows drove degradations across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and southern Missouri, with localized deterioration into Alabama, northern Georgia and the southern Midwest.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index values (a 0-800 scale measuring dryness in upper soil and vegetation layers) reached 700 to 800 in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi — severe dryness with elevated wildfire potential. Agricultural impact reports documented worsening conditions across Arkansas.

What changed in the Midwest and High Plains?

Missouri saw both directions. One-category improvements followed rainfall of 0.5 to 2 inches, but extreme drought expanded along the Arkansas border where storms missed. Minnesota and Iowa, receiving 0.25 to 1.5 inches locally up to 2 inches, stayed largely unchanged; short-term conditions stabilized, longer-term deficits did not.

The High Plains improved almost everywhere except northeastern Colorado, the region's only degradation. Eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas received more than 200% of normal precipitation, locally exceeding 400%, including 1 to 1.5 inches in central Nebraska. Improvements concentrated in central, south-central and northeastern Nebraska and southern Kansas. North Dakota and northern South Dakota, below 25% of normal rainfall, held steady thanks to prior weeks' moisture despite temperatures 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

What is the reservoir picture out West?

The West improved with zero deterioration reported. An Oct. 14-15 storm dropped 4.3 inches of snow at Silver Lake Brighton, Utah, and 3 inches near Evanston, Wyoming, supporting one-category improvements in western and central Wyoming, the Colorado Rockies, New Mexico and Washington. Repeated rainfall sustained gains across central and southern New Mexico.

The long-term picture stays grim. On Oct. 20, Lake Powell held roughly 5.3 million acre-feet, about 22% of capacity, per the Bureau of Reclamation. Rio Grande reservoir storage remained exceptionally low, and hydrologic drought persisted in both the Colorado River and Rio Grande basins. Streamflow shortages continued in Idaho; low surface water limited recovery in southeastern Montana.

What should farmers watch next?

The Weather Prediction Center's five-day forecast (Oct. 22-27) calls for 1 to 3 inches across Colorado and northern New Mexico, locally 5 inches or more, and 0.5 to 2 inches down the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West. Another 3 to 5 inches could fall from western Texas and the Panhandle through eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma's Panhandle and southwestern Kansas — a second shot at moisture for winter wheat country.

The Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast should stay dry. The Climate Prediction Center's 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 26-30) favors above-normal temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the Lower 48, with the highest probabilities over the Southwest, Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. That warmth raises evaporative demand exactly where moisture deficits are deepest. Below-normal temperatures are favored along the Canadian border, and above-normal precipitation stretches from California and the Southwest into western Texas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the USDA and NOAA. The next monitor, released each Thursday, will show whether the forecast Plains rain converts into another round of category improvements — or whether the Lower Mississippi Valley slides deeper into exceptional drought.