Teagasc 2027 margins: wheat needs 3.52t/ac to break even

Winter wheat for 2026/2027 will need 3.52t/ac of grain just to break even, according to Teagasc's new gross margin projections covering cereals, oilseed rape, peas, beans, potatoes and beet.

The figures confirm that input cost pressure hasn't eased. Fertiliser for winter wheat is pegged at €241/ac, with fungicides adding another €117. Total variable costs reach €772/ac. None of the projections include support payments.

What do the numbers say crop by crop?

• Winter wheat: €241/ac fertiliser, €117/ac fungicides, €772/ac total variable costs, 3.52t/ac breakeven yield (grain only).
• Straw: valued at €101/ac for all cereals, except winter barley and winter rye at €121/ac.
• Winter barley: fertiliser at €239/ac, fungicides at €59/ac, breakeven yield of 3.5t/ac.
• Winter oilseed rape: total variable costs of €651/ac, fertiliser the biggest line at €236/ac, breakeven yield of 1.3t/ac, straw valued at €61/ac.
• Potatoes: total input costs estimated at €4,804/ac, breakeven yield of 14.8t/ac.
• Protein crops: the Protein Aid Scheme is projected at €202/ac for peas and beans.

Why does winter barley need careful placing?

Irish winter barley yields have been extremely disappointing in recent years, with take-all (a root disease caused by soil-borne fungi) identified as the key issue. Teagasc puts the crop's fertiliser bill at €239/ac and fungicides at €59/ac, with a breakeven yield of 3.5t/ac — almost identical to wheat's.

Growers have responded. There's evidence that tillage farmers have committed to planting winter barley only as a first cereal after a break crop in 2026/2027, a rotation move that limits take-all risk by keeping the disease away from consecutive cereal hosts.

Is oilseed rape still the crop to back?

Winter oilseed rape was the standout success of the 2025/26 season in Ireland, and the new projections endorse that sentiment. Two factors drive it: a strong price for oilseeds and the improving rape yields Irish farmers have secured.

The 2026/2027 numbers point to a breakeven yield of just 1.3t/ac, with total variable costs of €651/ac — €121/ac below wheat — and fertiliser the biggest contributor at €236/ac. Rape straw adds €61/ac to output.

What about peas, beans and potatoes?

For legumes, sustainability in 2027 hinges on the Protein Aid Scheme, which Teagasc estimates at €202/ac for the growing season ahead. That payment, not the market price alone, will decide whether peas and beans hold their place in rotations.

Potatoes remain the high-stakes option. Total input costs sit at €4,804/ac with a breakeven yield of 14.8t/ac. That's roughly the cost of a new mid-spec tractor on every 30 acres.

How have winter crops established?

Winter cereal and oilseed rape crops have got off to an almost perfect start. Ground conditions have stayed excellent through the autumn planting season, and growers have had the chance to carry out weed control in near-ideal conditions — a rare bonus that should trim spring workloads.

What should farmers watch next?

Teagasc is clear that these are estimates. The real driver of tillage profitability in 2026/2027 will be the final yields secured at next harvest, with spring and summer weather the deciding factor. Watch for updated margin figures as fertiliser and grain prices firm up ahead of the spring.