Third Bay of Bengal low-pressure system may become Cyclone Aqwan

A new low-pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal at 5:30 am on Friday, November 13, under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed in its latest weather bulletin. It is the third successive low-pressure formation in the Bay of Bengal during the ongoing northeast monsoon season, a sequence that keeps coastal and delta farming districts in south India exposed to repeated rainfall events.

The system is forecast to follow a familiar strengthening pattern. According to the meteorological office, it will move northwestwards and intensify into a well-marked low-pressure area on Saturday, November 14, before concentrating further into a depression over the same region by Sunday, November 15. Should the system intensify beyond depression stage into a cyclonic storm, it will carry the name 'Aqwan', a name proposed by Iran under the regional naming convention for cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.

What warnings has the IMD issued?

The strengthening system has prompted two tiers of wind warnings covering the coming five days. Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 40–50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, is expected over the Andaman Sea and parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal on November 13 and 14. From November 15 to 17, wind speeds are projected to intensify to 45–55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, across the southeast, southwest, and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.

The fishing advisory is explicit. Fishermen have been strictly advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea, the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal until November 17. They should also avoid parts of the southwest Bay of Bengal from November 15 to 17. For coastal communities, that window effectively closes all major fishing grounds in the region for the better part of a week.

Where will rain fall on land?

Rainfall forecasts split into two phases. Under the influence of prevailing easterly winds, the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) in Chennai has forecast light rainfall at isolated places across northern coastal Tamil Nadu, the Western Ghats districts, Puducherry, and Karaikal on November 13 and 14.

The wetter phase follows the system's intensification. Between November 15 and 18, moderate to isolated heavy rainfall is expected over the hilly areas of Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari, as well as parts of the Cauvery delta, southern Tamil Nadu, and Karaikal. Heavy showers are also predicted at isolated spots over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday and Saturday.

The Cauvery delta is the agricultural variable to watch. The delta is Tamil Nadu's core rice-producing belt during the northeast monsoon, known locally as the retreating monsoon (the October–December rainy season that water's India's southeast coast). Moderate to heavy falls arriving there between November 15 and 18 land squarely in the samba paddy (the monsoon-planted rice crop) growth window, so standing crops in low-lying fields face waterlogging risk where drainage is weak.

What happens next?

The immediate marker is Saturday, November 14: if the low-pressure area becomes a well-marked low-pressure area on schedule, the depression forecast for Sunday becomes credible, and the cyclonic-storm scenario named 'Aqwan' moves into play. Farmers and fishing communities across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands should track the IMD's next bulletins through November 17, when the wind warnings and fishing advisories are due to lapse.