Missouri Farmers Eye Record El Niño After Fifth Straight Drought Year

Missouri has just recorded its fifth consecutive growing season with drought, a dry stretch state climatologist Zack Leasor ranks alongside the worst in the state's recorded climate history. The University of Missouri Extension scientist said only the early 1930s and early 1950s compare.

"This is now the fifth consecutive growing season that we've had drought," Leasor said. "That doesn't mean everywhere in the state had it, but it's been severe to extreme in that time."

His assessment came on November 13, 2026, as farmers looked ahead to what forecasters expect to be a near-record El Niño in 2027.

Where did the 2026 drought hit hardest?

Southwest Missouri bore the brunt across the five-year span. Pasture recovery there has stalled for a practical reason, Leasor said.

"They know there's some resilient things they could be doing, for example, establishing more resilient grasses in their pastures," he said. "But they haven't even had the opportunity to because they need one normal season without drought to get these new practices established."

Drought combined with high temperatures stressed plants across southern Missouri. Evaporation ran abnormally high and fast.

Corn regions escaped severe damage. Timing explains it, according to Leasor.

"We have seen good corn yields in all of these drought years, and I think a lot of that is the timing," he said. "They have enough water in July, and then it gets dry about the time they're ready to dry down for harvest."

The pattern did not hold statewide. Far northwest Missouri received more rainfall in recent months, leaving fields wet and forcing a delayed harvest. Late-planted soybeans took a hit from drought, mostly in southern Missouri. Southeast Missouri fared best, with a warm, dry planting season and the fewest weather-related challenges of the year.

What changes with El Niño in 2027?

The climate driver is flipping. La Niña, which dominated the five-year drought stretch, is giving way to an El Niño that Leasor said is close to record-breaking strength. For Missouri, that pattern historically brings increased rainfall through the year.

"I'm hoping once this El Niño strengthens and we get more into that pattern atmospherically, that we're a wet growing season next year, and we're not dealing with those drought concerns," Leasor said.

He also expects a wetter summer and fall. The departing La Niña produced one of the worst droughts recorded in the state.

"When you look at our state's climate history, five straight drought years is as far as length of a dry stretch up there with the early '30s, the early '50s," he said. "I don't think we've seen impacts to that level, and I don't think we've seen the drought be as severe, but we're up there with an almost record-breaking type of length with this five-year stretch, and so it is unusual."

Which practices does Leasor recommend?

His adaptation advice for 2027 covers crops, livestock and water.

• Plant early and plan for uncertainty. "That's not always going to be an option for sure, too," Leasor noted.
• Diversify rotations. Split a corn-soybean rotation across the farm so not every acre is a corn year or a soybean year. "That makes you a little bit less vulnerable," he said.
• Use drought-stricken crops as silage to supplement livestock feed. "Not all of the crops or all of ag is being hurt, and so you're not leaving yourself as vulnerable that way," Leasor said.
• Check water infrastructure. 2027 could be a critical year for pasture restoration, so inspect farm ponds and wells and expand them if needed.

Water supply has already forced costly decisions on some farms. "There are a lot of producers who have run into surface water supply issues on the farm the past few years and end up having to haul water," Leasor said. "So how you're managing that water on the farm, it's very important."

For Missouri farmers, the practical watchpoint for 2027 is the speed at which the El Niño strengthens, since a wet spring and summer would open the window southwest Missouri needs to re-establish drought-resilient pastures.