Gila River Hit 25.3 Feet as Late-October Floods Stall Arizona Harvests

The Gila River crested more than 2 feet above major flood stage in Arizona's Safford Valley during the last week of October, swelling to 25.3 feet near Solomon and damaging mature cotton before growers could get pickers into the field.

The flooding, triggered by storms that in several spots dropped a year's worth of rain in single events, stretched across the Four Corners region and disrupted harvests and fieldwork throughout central Arizona and New Mexico. That flood plain feeds farming in six Western states, and this time it delivered both damage and, ultimately, water the region badly wants.

Roadways and bridges washed out. Transportation snarled. Above the dams, fast water wreaked havoc on ranches, farms and rural communities. Below them, the story looked very different.

What did the dams actually protect?

Mostly, the lakes and flood control reservoirs did their job. They held back raging water and shielded the most active agricultural areas downstream, including central Arizona's productive Central Valley.

One reporter who traveled to the Gila — the once-major source of flowing water for farming in Pinal County — found the river bottom showing little evidence of fast-flowing water by early November. Only the shiny patina of not-yet-dry muddy flats remained. At the river bridge, storm runoff had receded to ankle depth.

The relief was real for downstream farmers. It didn't extend upstream. Communities above the dams absorbed the hit.

How bad was the cotton damage?

Local reports from around Solomon noted damage to mature cotton from high-velocity runoff, plus standing water in fields adjacent to the river. The consequences for the crop were concrete:

• Rot in open bolls
• Fiber discoloration
• Direct loss of yield

For growers, fiber quality degradation can bite harder than tonnage loss, since discounted cotton is discounted per pound. A flooded field next to a river can still be harvested — but at a price.

Upstream flooding carried different stakes. The Santa Cruz River, which flows fast through the Tucson area, borders one family farm and separates the owner from both the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. When it floods, it can take a week before groceries arrive — unless they are flown in.

Is the floodwater being saved?

On social media, the most repeated comment was, "I hope they're saving that water!" The answer, according to anyone familiar with Arizona and New Mexico waterways: they already are.

Almost 100% of the water flowing down from higher elevations is accounted for and dammed along every major tributary. The water that hammered the high country will end up in reservoirs — the same infrastructure that protected central Arizona's fields this month.

That matters because water is almost always welcome in the West. The exception is when it arrives all at once in the fast-flowing gullies of the high country, which is exactly what happened in late October.

What's next: El Niño and the drought

The timing of these storms fits a larger pattern. Experts previously noted that El Niño — the Pacific weather phenomenon that shifts storm tracks and typically pumps more moisture into the southern US — would peak in November and phase out slowly through the winter.

If that forecast holds, the region could see incremental relief from the extended Western drought rather than more catastrophic pulses. Farmers in the Gila and Salt river basins should watch reservoir inflow reports and upstream storm activity through November, since another high-country event would again test the dams — and again punish the communities above them.