National grass growth has slipped to 53kg DM/ha, down from over 60kg DM/ha coming into October and heading for the low 40s by the end of the week, according to PastureBase Ireland figures. That puts growth below the national demand figure of 45kg DM/ha — the point at which farmers must stop "full steam ahead" grazing and start closing the platform for spring.

The numbers tell a clear story. Coming into October, average growth ran nearly 10kg DM/ha ahead of the 10-year average. Longer, colder nights have now pulled soil temperatures back to between 11.8°C and 14.5°C, and PastureBase forecasts growth will drop by roughly 10kg DM/ha over the coming week.

At the same time, average farm cover (AFC) across the country sits at 961kg DM/ha, with herds entering paddocks at average pre-grazing yields of 2,200kg DM/ha. Covers are adequate. Growth is not. That gap is what makes the next fortnight decisive.

Why overgrazing now costs grass in spring?

With demand at 45kg DM/ha and growth falling towards the low 40s, the temptation to keep pushing stock hard risks overgrazing the platform. Farmers should manage allocations tightly and use strip wires, aiming for either 12- or 24-hour allocations depending on the paddock.

Managed this way, the 4cm residual target remains achievable even in high covers. A clean base now sets up spring grass — and the ordering matters: paddocks grazed out now will be the first paddocks grazed in spring. Farmers should therefore target the driest land first, ideally on paddocks close to the parlour.

What are the closing targets?

The rotation plan for the weeks ahead is specific:

• Hold a 35-40 day rotation for now;
• Have 60% of the platform grazed by early November;
• Reach an AFC of 700-750kg DM/ha by December 1.

A grass budget and an autumn rotation planner are the practical tools to hit those markers. Farmers who sketch both out this week will know immediately whether their current stocking rate and cover profile can deliver the December 1 AFC, or whether action on demand — culling, supplementation or housing — is needed sooner.

The arithmetic is unforgiving: with growth at 53kg DM/ha and falling roughly 10kg DM/ha weekly while demand holds at 45kg DM/ha, the platform slips into deficit within days. Acting on allocations and rotation length now is what protects both autumn residuals and the first grazing round of spring.

Farmers should watch the weekly PastureBase figures over the next fortnight, track soil temperatures against the 11.8-14.5°C range now recorded, and have their autumn rotation planner drawn up before the push to 60% grazed by early November begins.